2024 Economic Outlook: Half of Americans Think Taylor Swift Does More for the Economy Than Joe Biden

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By Jaime Dunaway-Seale Updated February 5, 2024

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💸 Who do Americans blame for inflation? 💸

Americans are most likely to blame the president for high prices, with 29% saying Joe Biden is primarily at fault. In fact, 50% of Americans think Taylor Swift did more for the economy in 2023 than Biden.

America's No. 1 Issue | Expected Market Crashes | Price Predictions | Funflation | Preparing for a Recession | Who's to Blame for Inflation? | Best Economic Systems | How to Fix the Economy | Americans' Economic Outlook

Economists entered 2024 surprisingly optimistic about the health of the economy, but the rising cost of living has Americans feeling like they're living in an economic downturn that's not reflected in the national numbers.

By all accounts, the economy is strong. Inflation has slowed, wages are up, and a widely forecast recession never materialized in 2023.

Yet 50% of Americans aren't confident in the current U.S. economy, and 66% don't think it will improve by the end of the year, according to a new survey from Real Estate Witch.

What's more, 65% of Americans worry there will be a recession in 2024, with 63% saying one is already here.

To learn more about the disconnect between public perception and the health of the economy, we surveyed 1,000 Americans about their puzzling views and financial predictions for the new year.

We found that 2 in 3 Americans (65%) remain pessimistic about the economy, but consumer sentiment could be poised for a rebound in 2024.

Roughly 40% of Americans think the 2024 economy will be better than last year, and 52% believe there will be an economic rebound in the U.S. in the near future.

📉 2024 Economic Outlook Statistics

  • Overall, Americans are more optimistic than they were in 2023, but 50% are not confident in the U.S. economy at the start of 2024, and 66% don't think it will improve over the next 12 months.
  • About 65% of Americans think there will be a recession this year, but that's down from 75% in 2023. 
  • 79% of Americans expect at least one market crash in 2024, with nearly 37% predicting the collapse of the general U.S. economy.
  • More than 1 in 3 Americans (38%) believe the U.S. has a housing crisis, and 64% think the government should implement policies to address housing affordability.
  • Nearly half of Americans (45%) are worried about their job security in 2024, and 65% think artificial intelligence could cost them their position.
  • Inflation is decelerating, but 77% of Americans remain worried that prices will continue to increase in 2024. 
    • Unfortunately, 59% of Americans don't think their personal income will increase in 2024, and 60% don't think their savings will rise to keep up with price hikes. 
  • More than 9 in 10 Americans (91%) are preparing for a potential recession by saving more money (46%) and cutting back on nonessential spending (46%).
  • Nearly half of Americans (48%) say they would lose everything if there was a recession.
  • Half of Americans (50%) think Taylor Swift did more for the economy in 2023 than President Joe Biden.
  • Just 24% of respondents think capitalism is the economic system that benefits the most Americans, while 20% think democratic socialism would be the most beneficial.

Americans Rank the Economy as the Most Important Issue in the U.S.

Americans welcomed 2024 with cheers, but many remain deeply troubled about the country's future. In fact, 96% of Americans believe the U.S. is already in some form of economic or social crisis, including:

  • A gun violence crisis (46%)
  • A national debt crisis (45%)
  • A financial crisis (43%)
  • An immigration crisis (42%)
  • A health care crisis (39%)

Although there are many problems to address, Americans say fixing the economy should be the country's highest priority.

Americans rarely agree on anything these days, but the need for a strong economy is an idea everyone can get behind. All generations rank the economy as their top priority.

Americans rank the following issues from most to least concerning:

  1. The economy and inflation
  2. Crime and gun violence
  3. The 2024 election
  4. Affordable housing
  5. Global conflicts
  6. Racial issues
  7. Climate change
  8. Abortion and reproductive rights
  9. Immigration
  10. LGBTQ+ rights

The economy was the No. 1 concern for the second year in a row, with more than 1 in 5 Americans (21%) ranking it as the most-pressing issue in 2023 and 2024. 

But as the U.S. hit a record for mass shootings in 2023, more than half of Americans (58%) are more worried about crime and safety than they were a year ago, causing crime and gun violence to rise to No. 2 in this year's poll — up one spot from No. 3 the year before.

Meanwhile, affordable housing dropped from No. 2 in 2023 to No. 4 in 2024.

Abortion and reproductive rights also dropped significantly — falling from No. 4 in 2023 to No. 8 in 2024. It appears that two years after Dobbs vs. Jackson was decided, Americans have turned their attention to more timely topics, such as the 2024 election.

2024 Rank2023 Rank
1The economy and inflationThe economy and inflation
2Crime/gun violenceAffordable housing
3The 2024 electionCrime/gun violence
4Affordable housingAbortion/reproductive rights
5Global conflictsClimate change
6Racial issuesRacial issues
7Climate changeCOVID-19
8Abortion/reproductive rightsImmigration
9Immigration Cannabis legalization
10LGBTQ+ rightsLGBTQ+ rights

79% of Americans Expect Market Crashes in 2024

Almost two-thirds of Americans (66%) think the U.S. economy won’t significantly improve in the next 12 months, with some expecting even more dire outcomes. About 79% of Americans expect market crashes in 2024.

Nearly half of Americans think the current U.S. economy (49%) and the global economy (49%) are weak, with 37% and 27% predicting they will collapse in 2024, respectively.

Fewer than half of Americans (46%) think the U.S. has the best economy in the world, and 72% think another world economy will outperform the U.S. in the near future

More than 1 in 3 Americans (36%) say economic rival China is the biggest threat to the U.S. economy, while 1 in 6 (16%) say its other adversary, Russia, is a threat.

When it comes to specific U.S. markets, the most common ones Americans expect to collapse are the cryptocurrency market (34%), real estate market (32%), stock market (32%), and labor market (29%).

The Cryptocurrency Market

After a disastrous 2022, the cryptocurrency market bounced back in 2023, and the aggregate value of all cryptocurrencies doubled last year.

The recovery has led to wider acceptance of the market, with 32% of Americans saying they have a positive view of cryptocurrency in 2024, compared to 25% in 2023. It's viewed even more favorably among young people. Millennials (46%) are nearly 8x more likely than boomers (6%) to view cryptocurrency positively.

The outlook for the crypto market is cautiously optimistic in 2024. There's widespread belief that federal regulators will approve a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund that will increase its exposure. Then in April, a Bitcoin halving event that occurs every four years is expected to increase the price by creating scarcity.

These strong tailwinds are why 32% of Americans think it's a good time to invest in cryptocurrency. However, cryptocurrency's phenomenal 2023 may be difficult to repeat, and 69% of Americans don't think the market for this volatile asset will improve over the next 12 months. 

The Real Estate Market

Americans are feeling more optimistic about some aspects of the economy, but the housing market isn't one of them.

The percentage of Americans who expect a real estate market crash actually increased from 27% in 2023 to 32% in 2024. Although experts don't think a collapse is looming in 2024, challenges remain.

Mortgage rates and housing prices remain stubbornly high, putting homeownership out of reach for many. It's no wonder 38% of Americans believe the U.S. has a housing crisis, and 64% think the government should do more to address affordable housing.

Just 39% of Americans think it's a good time to sell a home, and even fewer (30%) think it's a good time to buy. Unfortunately, many Americans are losing hope that the market will ever improve. Seventy percent say it will perform the same or worse over the next 12 months. 

By the end of 2024, about 60% of Americans predict low inventory and high demand will push home values higher than the current median price. As a result, 84% of Americans don't expect lower monthly mortgage payments a year from now.

Additionally, 69% of Americans think interest rates will continue rising in 2024. If the Federal Reserve slashes interest rates this year, however, buyers and sellers expressed an eagerness to re-engage: Nearly 1 in 4 adults (24%) say they would buy a home, and 1 in 7 adults (15%) would sell their home.

The Stock Market

Half of Americans (51%) think the stock market is strong after a rally in 2023, when the Federal Reserve signaled possible rate cuts this year. That's given the general public more confidence to invest, with nearly 4 in 10 Americans (38%) saying it's a good time to buy stocks.

Yet economists warn that the stock market is unlikely to produce such strong gains for a second year in a row, and Americans agree. More than half worry the stock market will decline in 2024 (54%) and that such a decline could affect their financial plans (53%).

Still, Americans have greater faith that the market can survive any setbacks. They are 16% less likely to expect a stock market crash in 2024 than they were in 2023. 

The Labor Market

More than half of Americans (56%) say the labor market remains strong, but workers' confidence is diminishing as the market cools from a post-pandemic high.

Last year, 62% of Americans said it was a good time to find a job, but that percentage dropped to 55% in 2024 — even as wages rise, jobs are added, and unemployment remains low

Workers comparing the current labor market to that of 2021, 2022, and 2023 feel worse off, causing employee sentiment to sour. Roughly 70% of Americans don't expect the labor market to improve in 2024.

Widespread layoffs in 2023 have also fueled fears and caused 45% of Americans to worry about their job security in 2024. In particular, 65% are concerned that artificial intelligence could cost them their jobs.

Older generations who lack familiarity with technology are predictably more fearful of AI, with boomers 12% more likely than millennials and 26% more likely than Gen Z to say it could cost Americans their jobs.

More Than 3 in 4 Americans Are Worried Prices Will Continue to Rise in 2024

The inflation rate is finally slowing, but many Americans don't think the reprieve will last. More than half of Americans (57%) believe the worst of inflation still lies ahead.

Americans are quick to blame inflation for their economic problems, but with the inflation rate declining, the real culprit may be stubbornly high prices.

Prices aren't surging as fast as they were a few years ago, but they're not decreasing, either. A staggering 70% of Americans had to cut back on spending last year, especially when 50% say their household income did not increase in the same time span.

Already feeling squeezed financially, 77% of Americans worry prices will continue to climb in 2024, and 58% worry price hikes will cause them to go into debt.

About 60% of Americans expect the general cost of living to increase. In particular, they anticipate paying more for the following goods and services:

  • Groceries (58%)
  • Rent (56%)
  • Utilities (55%) 
  • Gasoline (51%)
  • Health care (51%)
  • Mortgage (48%)

Unfortunately, 59% of Americans don't think their personal income will increase to keep pace with rising prices in 2024. Additionally, 60% don't expect their savings to rise, and 71% don't think they'll reduce their personal debt burden.

Such a grim economic outlook is certainly discouraging for 71% of Americans who thought they'd be doing better financially by now.

The good news is that the percentage of Americans living paycheck to paycheck dropped from 74% in 2023 to 65% in 2024. The percentage who struggle to afford everyday expenses also fell from 70% in 2023 to 56% in 2024.

Funflation: A Majority of Americans Can't Afford Entertainment Costs

Nearly 6 in 10 Americans (59%) say they are sacrificing their personal happiness to ensure their finances are in a good state. For many, that means forgoing fun — but expensive — trips, sporting events, and concerts.

Entertainment costs have risen so much in recent years that a majority of Americans can't afford to have fun anymore.

In 2023, international flights rose to the highest level in five years, with a roundtrip ticket to Europe costing roughly $1,200. But only 9% of Americans would pay more than $1,000 for an international flight. 

Attending a professional sporting event also got more expensive last year. The average price of an NFL ticket jumped from $235 in 2022 to $377 in 2023, with Super Bowl tickets costing more than $10,000. Yet only 19% of Americans would pay $300 or more for a ticket to a professional sporting event, and only 4% would spend $1,000 or more.

Meanwhile, the average price of a concert ticket has doubled in the past four years, increasing from $125 in 2019 to $252 in 2023. However, 71% of Americans say they'd spend just $200 or less on a concert ticket.

Still, 1 in 9 Americans would pay $500 or more for a concert ticket, and 3% would pay $1,000 or more — a necessary splurge to see premier artists, such as Beyonce and Taylor Swift.

Consumers who continue to drop an exorbitant amount of money on experiences could contribute to higher "funflation" in the future. Unfortunately for millennials, they're an easy target to blame. The younger generation is much more likely than boomers to pay for high-end experiences and events, even though boomers generally have more wealth. 

Millennials are 6x more likely than boomers to pay $500 or more for a concert ticket and 11x more likely to pay $500 or more for a ticket to a sporting event. Yet boomers (67%) are 2x more likely than millennials (29%) to say they would not treat themselves to a meal of more than $50 at a nice restaurant.

Young Americans may think some experiences are worth it — no matter the price — despite the financial hardship it could later cause. Millennials are 85% more likely than boomers to say they live beyond their means, while Gen Zers are 150% more likely than boomers to report the same.

More Than 90% of Americans Are Preparing for a Recession

In 2023, about 75% of Americans thought the U.S. would experience a recession, but the economic downturn never came. Pessimism still lingers, but the percentage of Americans who believe a recession will occur in 2024 dropped to 65%.

Still, more than 9 in 10 Americans (91%) are preparing for a potential recession. The most common ways Americans are preparing include:

  • Saving more money (46%)
  • Cutting back on nonessential spending (46%)
  • Delaying a big purchase (37%)
  • Paying off debt (36%)
  • Finding an additional source of income (33%)

Changing personal finance habits is a small price to pay when the stakes are so high: Nearly half of Americans (48%) say they would lose everything if there was a recession.

The good news is that many economists don't believe a recession is imminent in 2024, although the economy is expected to slow — enough so that the Federal Reserve may consider lowering interest rates. 

If the Fed cut interest rates in 2024, nearly 3 in 4 Americans (73%) would make changes to their finances — including spending instead of saving and borrowing instead of paying off debt.

The most common changes Americans would make if interest rates declined are:

  • Putting more money into investments (32%)
  • Refinancing their loans (24%)
  • Buying a home (24%)
  • Taking out more loans (18%)
  • Selling their home (15%)

Half of Americans Think Taylor Swift Did More for the Economy in 2023 Than Joe Biden

Americans rank the 2024 election as one of the most important issues in the country because 62% believe the outcome will impact the economy. This year's election carries even greater weight, with 55% of Americans saying the 2024 election will have a bigger impact on the economy than the 2020 election.

As the election looms, incumbent politicians must overcome widespread negative sentiment about the government's role in the economy. In fact, more Americans have a negative view (40%) of the federal government than a positive view (36%).

Although the health of the economy is the result of a variety of forces, 52% of Americans blame elected federal officials for inflation and high prices. Of those, 23% say Congress is most at fault, while 29% say the president is primarily to blame. Half of Americans (50%) even think Taylor Swift did more for the economy in 2023 than Joe Biden.

Boomers, who tend to identify as politically conservative, are the most likely to blame Biden for the economy. More than one-third (38%) say he is primarily responsible, compared to just 24% of millennials and Gen Z.

Politicians may attempt to deflect blame on corporate America, but many constituents aren't buying it. Only 18% of Americans blame corporations for high prices, even though publicly traded U.S. companies reported fatter profit margins in 2023.

Just 1 in 8 Americans (13%) blame the Federal Reserve, which has cooled the economy with higher interest rates that reduce buyers' purchasing power. 

Which Presidents Have the Best Economic Legacy?

Although many blame Biden for today's high prices, Americans believe he is just as likely as his Republican challengers — Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, and Nikki Haley — to deliver a strong economy.

Historically, Americans think recent Democratic presidents (29%) have managed the economy well, slightly more often than recent Republican presidents (24%). Among presidents since 1980:

  • 35% say Barack Obama managed the economy well
  • 34% say Donald Trump managed the economy well
  • 26% say Bill Clinton managed the economy well
  • 25% say Joe Biden is managing the economy well
  • 24% say Ronald Reagan managed the economy well
  • 20% say George W. Bush managed the economy well
  • 16% say George H.W. Bush managed the economy well

Overall, Americans have a slightly better view of the Democratic Party (42%) than the Republican Party (36%), with a stark difference among generations regarding economic performance.

Predictably, millennials are more likely to approve of the economy under Democratic presidents, while boomers are more likely to approve of the economy under Republican presidents.

Boomers (43%) are 2x more likely than millennials (19%) to approve of Reagan's economy, while millennials (34%) are 2x more likely than boomers (17%) to approve of Biden's economy. The younger generation (38%) is also 26% more likely than boomers (30%) to say Obama managed the economy well.

Fewer Than 1 in 4 Respondents Think Capitalism Benefits the Most Americans

As income inequality and economic dissatisfaction grow, public support for capitalism has dwindled — with fewer than half of Americans (42%) viewing it positively.

Capitalism has a staunch ally in politically and economically powerful boomers. The older generation (47%) is 2x more likely than millennials (21%) to say it's the best economic system. But more than 1 in 3 Americans (36%) don't think capitalism will last in the United States. 

This era's capitalism is driving many young people toward socialism instead. Although just 10% of boomers view socialism positively, the figure jumps to 44% among millennials — superseding the percentage of millennials who view capitalism positively (43%).

Among the overall respondent pool, however, just 33% of Americans say they view socialism positively and just 8% say it would be the most beneficial economic system for the U.S.

A significant portion of Americans support adopting some aspects of socialism, though. About 1 in 5 Americans (20%) say the most beneficial economic system would be democratic socialism — in which the government provides a range of essential services to the public for free or at a discount without controlling all aspects of the economy.

Democratic socialism is particularly appealing to younger generations who may feel cheated by capitalism. Millennials, for example, say democratic socialism (26%) would benefit more Americans than capitalism (21%).

Americans may argue about the best economic systems and policies, but in reality, many remain unsure about the best course of action. More than 1 in 4 Americans (26%) don't know what economic system would benefit the most Americans.

75% of Americans Think the Government Should Do More to Help Americans

Americans are dissatisfied with capitalism, but they can't agree on an alternative, either. So what's a policy maker to do?

More than 3 in 4 Americans (76%) say the best way to improve the economy is to reduce the national debt.

About 45% of Americans believe the U.S. has a national debt crisis, with 58% believing it will get worse by the end of the year. By reducing the national debt, the U.S. will have more to invest in its own future, creating economic and investment opportunities for the general public.

Americans say the government can also improve the economy by:

  • Expanding Medicare and Medicaid (72%)
  • Implementing universal health care (71%)
  • Lowering taxes for all Americans (71%)
  • Providing more financial support to low-income Americans (70%)
  • Providing federal paid parental leave (68%)
  • Raising the federal minimum wage (68%)
  • Providing free higher education (66%)
  • Forgiving students loans (61%)

Ironically, many of these economic assistance programs would also raise the national debt, but such broad support shows a deep desire among Americans (75%) for the government to do more to help the public.

The only suggested policy that respondents said would hurt the economy is intervening in global conflicts (61%) — arguing that economic aid packages could be better spent on domestic priorities.

Despite Skepticism, Americans Are More Optimistic About the Economy in 2024

Although Americans continue to express pessimism about the economy, they are far more optimistic than they were in 2023 as the threat of a recession dissipates.

Last year, 74% of Americans thought the economy was headed in the wrong direction, but that percentage dropped to 66% in 2024. What's more, about one-third of Americans think the economy will course correct, with 35% saying it will rally by the end of the year.

Younger generations are fueling this optimistic outlook, with 58% of millennials saying they have confidence in the current economy and 45% saying they expect it to improve by the end of 2024 — compared to 37% and 25% of boomers, respectively. 

Americans who remain pessimistic about the economy are those who often feel left behind by it. For example, more than 1 in 3 women (37%) don't believe every American has the chance to succeed financially regardless of race, class, or gender.

It's not hard to understand their belief when women are 60% more likely than men to say their household income did not increase last year and 58% more likely to say they don't make enough to live comfortably.

It can be difficult for those who are struggling to think positively or feel optimistic about the future. Unfortunately, 61% of women don't have confidence in the current economy and 46% think it will get worse by the end of 2024. 

However, a majority of respondents (52%) believe there will be an economic rebound in the U.S. in the near future. But as long as pervasive pessimism persists, there's no guarantee Americans would even recognize a strong economy when they see it.

Methodology

The proprietary data featured in this study comes from an online survey commissioned by Clever Real Estate. One thousand Americans were surveyed Dec. 2-3, 2023. Each respondent answered 25 questions related to their views on the economy, as well as their economic outlook and expectations for 2024.

About Real Estate Witch

You shouldn’t need a crystal ball or magical powers to understand real estate. Since 2016, Real Estate Witch has demystified real estate through in-depth guides, honest company reviews, and data-driven research. In 2020, Real Estate Witch was acquired by Clever Real Estate, a free agent-matching service that has helped consumers save more than $160 million on realtor fees. Real Estate Witch's research has been featured in CNBC, Yahoo! Finance, Chicago Tribune, Black Enterprise, and more.

More Research From Real Estate Witch

Half of Americans Say They’d Lose Everything in a Recession: Find out how Americans' economic outlook has changed since 2023.

2024 Millennial Home Buyer Report: Americans don't expect the real estate market to improve in 2024, but that's not stopping millennials from buying homes. Discover the financial risks they'll take to become homeowners.

90% of Millennials Are in Debt: Half of millennials struggle to afford bills, but they'll undermine their financial security by dining out or making impulse purchases at least once a week. Learn more about the millennial debt crisis in 2024.

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FAQs

Are we in a recession in 2024?

In 2023, about 75% of Americans thought the U.S. would experience a recession, but the economic downturn never came. Pessimism still lingers, but the percentage of Americans who believe a recession will occur in 2024 dropped to 65%. Learn more.

Will inflation go down in 2024?

The inflation rate is finally slowing, but many Americans don't think the reprieve will last. More than half of Americans (57%) believe the worst of inflation still lies ahead. Learn more.

Who is to blame for the economy?

Americans are most likely to blame the president for a poor economy, with 29% saying Joe Biden is primarily at fault. In fact, 50% of Americans think Taylor Swift did more for the economy in 2023 than Biden. Learn more.

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